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離岸和在岸人民幣對美元即期匯率處於哪裏?
格隆匯 07-23 11:43

本文來自:中國貨幣市場

2021年5月,離岸市場人民幣存款規模有所上升。2021年上半年,離岸(CNH)和在岸(CNY)人民幣對美元即期匯率處於升值通道;三種人民幣匯率指數較去年年末出現上升;掉期點較去年年末出現上升;離岸人民幣債券市場發行額同比上升16.9%;離岸人民幣貨幣市場利率較去年年末上升。

境外人民幣存款

2021年5月,離岸市場人民幣存款規模有所上升。截至2021年5月末,香港地區人民幣存款規模為8211億元,環比上升5%;跨境貿易結算金額為4823億元,環比下降14.1%。台灣地區人民幣存款規模為2380億元,環比下降0.5%。

離岸人民幣外匯市場

2021年上半年,離岸(CNH)和在岸(CNY)人民幣對美元即期匯率處於升值通道;三種人民幣匯率指數較去年年末出現上升;掉期點較去年年末出現上升。

即期市場:6月末,香港離岸人民幣(CNH)對美元即期匯率收於6.4676,較2020年末升值1.2%;在岸人民幣(CNY)對美元即期匯率收於6.4612,較2020年末升值0.5%;期間日度平均價差(CNY-CNH的絕對值)為96BP,較去年同期縮小53BP。香港全球離岸人民幣匯率指數RXYH為97.9,較去年年末上升3.1%;CFETS人民幣匯率指數為98,參考BIS貨幣籃子的人民幣匯率指數為102.01,參考SDR貨幣籃子的人民幣匯率指數為96.77,較去年年末分別上升3.3%、3.4%和2.7%。

匯率衍生品市場:價格方面,6月末CNH 1年期掉期點收於1550BP,較去年年末上升123BP;CNY 1年期掉期點收於1572BP,較去年年末上升132BP。在岸和離岸月均掉期點差(CNY-CNH)為51BP,較去年同期下降142BP。成交量方面,2021年上半年,港交所USD/CNH期貨合約成交1112332張,其中標準合約成交量為784367張,較去年同期下降9.6%,小型合約成交量為327965張。USD/CNH期權合約成交3318張,較去年同期下降42.6%。芝加哥商品交易所USD/CNH期貨合約成交98807張,較去年同期減少11.2%,6月底未平倉合約4702張,較去年同期增加210.4%。5月,新交所USD/CNH期貨合約共成交869101張,環比上升13.3%;月末未平倉合約為95935張,環比上升3.8%。USD/CNH期權合約成交435張,環比上升42.2%,月末未平倉合約460張,環比上升38.9%。

離岸人民幣債券市場

2021年上半年,離岸人民幣債券市場發行債券248支,較去年同期增加91支,發行額約為1548.2億元,同比分別上升57.9%和16.9%。

離岸人民幣貨幣市場

6月末,隔夜、7天、3個月和1年期CNH HIBOR分別收於9.74%、3.08%、3.01%和3.07%,較去年年末分別上升571BP、12BP、12BP和0BP。2021年上半年,離岸對在岸拆借利率隔夜、7天、3個月和1年期平均利差(HIBOR-SHIBOR)分別為69BP、57BP、35BP和18BP,較去年同期分別上升1BP、下降12BP、上升9BP和下降45BP。

6月末,7天、3個月和1年期CNH遠期隱含收益率分別收於2.93%、2.68%和2.65%,較去年年末分別上升20BP、2BP和24BP。6月末,3個月和1年期離岸人民幣(CNH)對美元交叉貨幣互換(CCS)利率分別收於2.55%和2.59%,較去年年末分別下降8BP和上升21BP。

境外機構在境內銀行間市場動態

截至2021年6月末,參與境內銀行間外匯市場的境外機構總數達163家,與去年年末相比增加5家。參與境內銀行間債券市場的境外機構及產品總數達3827家(支),較去年年末增加297家(支)。

2021年上半年,在境內銀行間外匯市場,境外機構成交量共計24.2萬億元,較去年同期上升70.3%。其中,外匯即期成交量為5585億元,同比上升6.1%;外匯衍生品成交量為3.3萬億元,同比上升41.8%;外幣拆借成交量為20.9萬億元,同比上升83.8%。在境內銀行間貨幣市場,境外機構成交量共計1.5萬億元,較去年同期上升248.2%。在境內銀行間債券市場,境外機構現券成交量共計5.7萬億元,較去年同期上升24.9%。

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