《大行報告》高盛削內地水泥股目標價 將中建材(03323.HK)剔出「確信買入」名單
高盛發表報告,下調所覆蓋內地水泥股今年至2023年盈測介乎1%至43%,以反映行業供需關係弱過預期、以及煤價上升因素,並下調相關股份目標價介乎13%至41%。
該行料未來數月需求呈季節性復甦,近期與行業聯絡,留意到供應壓力大過預期。因煤價上升壓力持續,料導致水泥商毛利率難以顯着復甦。該行維持對水泥業審慎看法,續予華潤水泥(01313.HK)「沽售」評級,目標價由8.2元大幅降至4.8元。
考慮供需關係轉弱及單位毛利展望向下,高盛將中國建材(03323.HK)剔出其「確信買入」名單,但維持予「買入」評級,目標價由16元降至14元。此外,該行維持海螺水泥(00914.HK)「中性」評級,H股目標價由59元降至42元。
高盛稱,本年至今內地水泥股毛利率遜預期,主因來自基建及住宅的建築需求轉弱,以及行業限產計劃停滯不前。同時,華東及華南新產能添置亦高企。該行從業內得悉華東地區有效產能增加10%至20%。該行下調今明兩年水泥每單位毛利預測,並仔細估算海螺水泥每噸毛利,由去年的155元人民幣降至今年的每噸110元人民幣,另華潤水泥每噸毛利料由去年的137元人民幣,降至今年的今年的每噸89元人民幣。
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