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《大行報告》野村料河南水災對中國GDP影響較輕 料災後基建及汽車需求將被釋放
野村發表報告表示,就河南省鄭州地區近期遭遇強降雨造成洪災侵害,由於鄭州是全國頂級交通樞紐,河南省是糧食、原材料和iPhone等部分製成品的主要產地,該行今次洪災將在短期內對商業活動和通脹產生重大影響。但該行料相關洪災一旦結束也應該會釋放被壓抑的消費及投資需求,特別是對汽車(因當地許多已損壞)和城市基礎設施的需求。該行指,降雨和洪水也可能會在未來數週略微提高河南和鄰近省份食品價格。

該行指,鄭州2020年GDP總量爲1.2萬億人民幣(佔全國GDP的1.2%),總人口達1,260萬(佔全國人口的0.9%)。鄭州是中國重要的國民經濟樞紐之一;河南省人口佔全國的7%,2020年對全國GDP的貢獻率爲5.4%。河南雖屬中國經濟欠發達地區之一,但爲農業糧食和礦產品(如鋁及煤)的出產地。

野村指近年來河南對全國糧食產量的貢獻率爲10.1%,豬肉產量佔全國的比重爲8.1%,氧化鋁產量佔全國的比重爲13.8%。而鄭州市生產世界七分之一的智能手機,因爲它是臺灣鴻海擁有的世界上最大的iPhone製造工廠的所在地。這座被稱爲中國「iPhone城」的城市組裝全球約一半的iPhone產品。

野村表示,今次河南災情雖然全國GDP最多隻會受到輕微影響,但料鄭州和其他一些黃河沿岸城市可能會受到重大影響,料中國經濟在下半年面臨潛在放緩、指新冠疫情仍是增長穩定性的重大風險,該行認爲內地放寬房地產行業的政策的空間不大,拉動實際需求的重擔可能落在基礎設施領域。該行預計內地政府將放寬地方政府籌資及支出政策,並可能推出支持基建升級措施,以針對鄭州洪澇後部分主要城市。

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