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《大行報告》高盛降潤燃(01193.HK)評級至「沽售」 調整燃氣股目標價
高盛發表研究報告,料內地燃氣需求至2035年將會倍升,由於減碳國策,料2030年起需求增長將放緩。燃氣分銷商正應對這長期挑戰,長遠目標由傳統銷氣商轉型至清潔能源及服務提供商;分銷商亦開始經營天然氣智能微電網、擴大增值服務等。

該行稱,深入瞭解分銷商增值服務後,料年均複合增長達25%,至2025年,對盈利貢獻佔比擴至20%,高於2020年的約10%。該行料分銷商大部分收入屬經常性質,來自廚房用品置換需求及維護。

另在2000年代初接駁氣網的物業亦開始老化,該行料在2015至2030年間將產生置換需求,其均複合增長料達20%,分銷商在額外成本有限下可捕捉以上置換機遇。該行跨地區分析料至2030年,增值服務爲三大主要分銷商帶來90億美元的額外收入。

該行上調對新奧能源(02688.HK)、華潤燃氣(01193.HK)及崑崙能源(00135.HK)2021至2023年盈測介乎1%至21%。該行下調中燃(00384.HK)2022至2023財年盈測5%至7%,但維持「買入」評級,目標價由35元降至30元;另維持新奧「買入」評級,目標價由140元升至176元。考慮估值高企及盈利增長遜同業後,降潤燃評級由「中性」下調至「沽售」,目標價升12%至48元。該行維持昆能「中性」評級,目標價升21%至7.4元。詳細評級及目標價見另表。

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