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《大行報告》匯豐研究料銅價維持強勁 降五礦資源、洛鉬及江銅目標價
匯豐研究發表報告,指銅價最近數週輕微轉弱,現徘徊於每噸約9,500美元,較今年較早時間的逾一萬美元歷史高位略降。該行料歸因於內地政府壓抑通脹舉措,透過壓抑投機及出售金屬庫存,幹預商品市場價格。該行料在回覆供應剩餘前,今明兩年銅市仍供不應求,維持作爲賤金屬看好類別。該行料未來數年銅礦供應增加,但考慮需求改善預期,料短期市場維持緊張,銅價料維持強勁。該行上調今年銅價預測2%,明後兩年則維持不變。該行料今年平均銅價每噸約9,200美元。

報告稱,拉美供應風險持續,中國貨幣政策及新能源車勢頭利好銅需求。全球最大銅礦之一,智利埃斯孔迪達銅礦勞工談判持續(佔去年全球銅供應約6%),料持續引起銅供應憂慮。在祕魯及智利,近期選舉就採礦法規及稅收帶來不確定性。惟內地降準則爲市場提供更多流動性及刺激銅需求。該行料電動車及增加採用可再生能源將重塑中至長期銅需求。

就該行調整金屬價格預測,匯豐研究上調五礦資源(01208.HK)2021至2023年盈測1%至6%,上調洛陽鉬業(03993.HK)盈測1%至6%;但上調江西銅業(00358.HK)盈測僅1%至2%,考慮加工精煉費率下降或抵銷銅價上升對其帶來的好處。

匯豐研究下調覆蓋銅板塊股目標價4%至13%,予五礦資源目標價由7.5元降至6.5元,洛鉬H股目標價由7.5元降至7.1元,江銅H股目標價由24.5元降至22.3元,評級全爲「買入」。

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