招銀國際：看好新力控股(SINHLD)2021年到期債券，建議買入
格隆匯7月14日丨招銀國際在7月14日發佈了對新力控股(SINHLD)的信用點評。新力控股預計中期債務水平穩定；儘管5月和6月銷售放緩，但銷售仍保持強勁；希望通過內部資源償還美元債券；招銀國際在 SINHLD '21s （2021年到期債券）上保持買入建議。
新力控股的預售如期進行，而投資保持謹慎。新力在2021年上半年實現了人民幣 588 億元的合同總銷售額（同比增長35%，完成目標的47%）。招銀國際估計重資產業務（房地產開發）的銷售額為 400 億元人民幣。公司指引預售並表比約 40-45%。權益合約銷售額為人民幣 270 億元（同比增長28%），而回款率則為 80%。
2021年上半年，新力集團以31 億元的權益成本購買了約100 萬平方米的新土地，轉化為94 億元的可售資源。新力控股仍對新土地收購保持警惕，以保持2021年上半年的合理盈利能力，因為 2021年上半年的土地總投資僅佔新力控股預計回款的 23% 或全年土地預算的26%。
預期中期業績穩定，在“三紅線”政策下仍停留在黃色陣營。 新力控股指導在2021年上半年保持穩定的收入增長（截至 2020 年約 280 億元人民幣，1H20 未披露）、持平的債務水平（截至 2020 年約 300 億元人民幣）和穩定的毛利率（截至 2020 年為 23%-24%）。 新力控股報吿淨負債率、現金/短債和調整後的資產負債率截至 2020 年分別為 64%、1.2 倍和 73%，並預計在中期業績中仍將保持在黃色陣營。
過去 6 個月，SINHLD 下跌 5-13 個百分點，原因是市場對中國房地產高息債的普遍疲軟以及有關該公司的各種市場傳聞。憑藉2021年上半年的回款約 220 億元人民幣、截至 2020 年的手頭現金 175 億、2021年上半年超過 1 倍的現金/短債以及審慎土地投資，招銀國際認為新力控股有足夠的資源來償還2021年到期債券（金額約 2.5億 美元）。
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