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富瑞:降準對房地產市場的正面影響有限 內房股首選合景泰富(1813.HK)等三股

央行上週五(9日)宣佈,為支持實體經濟發展,促進綜合融資成本穩中有降,將全面下調金融機構存款準備金率0.5個百分點,釋放長期資金1萬億元(人民幣,下同),7月15日起生效。富瑞發表研究報吿指,此為意料之外的信貸放鬆,但鑑於目前對房地產開發商和購房者的嚴格信貸控制,認為對實體房地產市場的基礎性影響將是有限的

富瑞視內房股三大首選股份為合景泰富(1813.HK),目標為16.1港元;新城發展(1030.HK)目標價11.81港元及融創中國(1918.HK),目標價為48.32港元。

富瑞指,在過去十年的前幾次降準中,中國房地產板塊在宣佈後的一星期內普遍跑贏MSCI中國,但相對於之前對流入樓市的資本流動監管相對寬鬆,認為監管機構目前的嚴格信貸控制將大大抵消此次降準對實體市場和股價走勢的影響,因此認為此次下調對該行業的影響為中性至略為正面,建議投資者保持謹慎,等待未來數週土地市場及政策更加明朗,然後再重新審視該行業。

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