《大行報告》花旗:內地降準對流動性影響有限 料小型銀行最受惠
花旗在上周四(8日)人行降準前發表研究報告指,內地早前暗示將透過降準在內措施以支援實體經濟,特別是中小微企等,助應對大宗商品價格上升,考慮到農曆新年後流動性相對充足,加上人行過去三個月亦有透過公開市場操作注入現金,故市場或未有預期人行上周五(9日)降準舉措,並料降準對流動性影響有限。該行認為政策措施對投資者而言或帶來負面情緒,或會被降讀為政府憂慮經濟復甦遜預期,或是有較大潛在信貸風險等,而該行預期假如採定向降準,小型銀行將最受惠。
花旗指出,降準主要希望降低銀行體系的資金成本,儘管推出存款息上限的新定價機制,部分小型銀行仍受資金成本高所影響,另一方面則希望減輕小型銀行的資金壓力,因為中小微企的貸款能力受制於相關的資金供應,另一方面亦希望重整華北及華南的貸款,因為今年大部分貸款均集中於長江範圍,而華北地區則呈現信貸收縮,或會壓制貸款增長並為華北地區小型銀行帶來潛在不良貸款風險。
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