廣發證券-中國有色礦業(1258.HK)：被低估的高成長性國際化銅礦公司，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，中期業績同比預增769%
核心觀點
中國有色礦業：產業鏈完整的國際化礦業公司
全球領先的垂直綜合銅生產商；深耕非洲市場，發展潛力較大；股權結構穩定，分佈集中。
公司盈利能力良好，業績表現優異
銷量一路走高，營收穩步向好；產品結構優異，開拓高毛利產品線；量價齊升，毛利率有上行趨勢。
銅的中長期潛在供需缺口逐步擴大
銅精礦資本開支週期低谷效應逐步顯現，新投礦山產量增速有限；全球顯性庫存歷史相對低位，隱性庫存較少；電力基建及地產竣工大幅增長，汽車銷量邊際大幅好轉；RCEP+碳中和，中長期銅消費增長核心驅動力；拜登基建計劃將在長期明顯拉動銅消費。
多向持續發力，助力業績提升
礦產資源星羅棋佈，具備資源優勢；擴大冶煉產能，深化公司產能優勢；贊比亞、剛果金收緊銅精礦出口政策，有望促進公司冶煉發展；區位優勢顯著，火法技術領先行業；財務數據表現優異，資產回報率高。
盈利預測及投資建議
預計公司2021-2023年可實現營收分別為44.07億美元、52.28億美元以及52.57億美元，對應可實現歸母淨利潤分別為3.88億美元、4.76億美元以及4.92億美元，EPS分別為0.10美元/股、0.13美元/股以及0.13美元/股。以最新收盤價計算，對應PE分別為5.03倍、4.10倍以及3.96倍。基於可比公司估值，我們認為公司合理價值為7.8港元/股(美元兑港幣匯率：7.77)，對應2021年10倍PE，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示
新增銅礦項目投產及爬產不及預期；新增火法冶煉項目投產；剛果金及贊比亞政策不確定性；全球需求萎縮導致銅價大幅下跌。
盈利預測
中國有色礦業(1258.HK)預計上半年純利同比增加769%
中國有色礦業7月9日公佈，預期集團截至2021年6月30日止六個月，比較2020年同期，公司擁有人分佔利潤大幅增長，約為2.04億美元，增加約769%。
董事會預期集團截至2021年6月30日止六個月的公司擁有人分佔利潤增加的主要原因是：銅價同比大幅上漲；及由於新投產項目產能釋放，銅產品產量同比大幅提升。
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