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《大行報告》中金:內地降準是對沖MLF到期資金流動性缺口 料靜態影響提升內銀淨利潤預測0.2%
中金發表報告表示,就人行於上周五(9日)公布於7月15日下調存款準金率0.5個百分點(不含已執行5%存款準備金率的金融機構),下調後金融機構加權平均存款準備金率為8.9%,釋放長期資金約1萬億人民幣(於7月至9月MLF)分別到期各4,000億、7,000億及6,000億人民幣),該行認為,內地降準不是經濟大走弱,不是貨幣政策大幅走向寬鬆,而是對沖MLF到期與稅期高峰帶來的資金流動性缺口,政策是穩中偏鬆,目的在於對沖「緊信用」壓力。

該行指,測算本次降準的靜態影響提升上市內銀2021年淨息差預測0.2個基點,提升淨利潤預測0.2%,而動態來看,則需考慮後續的信貸供需關係及新發放貸款定價的走勢。

總體而言,中金看好零售內銀包括招行(03968.HK)、平安銀行(000001.SZ)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)以及客戶基礎好、區域活躍的區域性銀行,或能相對穩定資產價格和息差,同時保持較好的資產質量,建議關注上述銀行較好的中報業績成為股價催化。(wl/k)

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