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《大行報告》裏昂料內銀次季業績可成催化劑 首選郵儲行(01658.HK)及招行(03968.HK)
裏昂發表的研究報告指,內銀股股價昨日(8日)出現調整,其中招商銀行(03968.HK)跌5%,而國企指數跌幅僅爲3%,市場認爲內地提出降存款準備金率將爲負面催化劑,因意味經濟復甦較弱,並將重啓寬鬆週期,不過該行不同意相關看法,認爲降存款準備金率主要針對中小企而非整體市場,假如措施落實僅爲政策微調,取態由過緊轉爲中性。該行的調查亦顯示貸款息率持續上升,加上資產質素壓力減輕,估計有助銀行盈利復甦,料內銀次季業績將成催化劑,而利潤擴張或可帶來上行驚喜,首選郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及招行。

該行並不預期會重啓寬鬆週期,料政策微調僅爲穩定貸款增長,因爲5月份貸款按年增長已減慢至11%,相信財政政策仍然是重要一環,而貨幣政策會聚於針對中小企的定向降準,並確保銀行間流動性充足,但就不預期在政策利率上會有轉變。

裏昂認爲招行在近期調整後爲其首選之一,維持對公司競爭優勢的可持續性有信心,特別是企業管治方面,招行在財富管理上有差異化的策略,加上金融科技能力較高及並有較好的風險管控,長遠預期股本回報率達18.6%,目標價75元合理。(el/u) ~

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