傳阿聯酋提出在需求枯竭之前儘可能多的出售原油
本文編選自“JT²智管有方”。
7月7日(週三)有消息稱阿聯酋方面將利用增加石油產量來補貼可持續能源,同時阿聯酋方面將利用增加石油產量來補貼可持續能源。收益將幫助該國經濟擺脫對石油的依賴。
近日OPEC由於沙特和阿聯酋罕見公開爭吵導致談判陷入僵局。阿聯酋方面有意增加石油產量的消息傳出後,原油市場短線出現暴動。美國WTI原油期貨價格短線跳水1.6美元。有數據顯示,NYMEX最活躍WTI原油主力期貨合約北京時間7月7日20:18一分鐘內買賣盤面瞬間成交5388手,交易合約總價值3.93億美元。
阿聯酋的未開發原油儲量位居世界前列,多年來,該政府一直表示,他們不擔心在遙遠的未來找到原油買家。阿聯酋一位石油高管表示:“市場份額是一個關鍵因素,我們想要更大的市場份額,儘可能地將我們的儲備貨幣化,尤其是在我們已經花費數十億美元開發這些儲備的時候。
市場分析人士稱,若阿聯酋最終退出OPEC,各方各自混戰,大規模增產的場景可能出現,並使得油價崩潰,甚至重演2014年的油價大屠殺。
當年,OPEC關於減產的談判發生破裂,最終各方並未達成一致,導致各國在石油產量上各自爲戰,隨後原油價格斷崖式下跌。
荷蘭國際集團新加坡大宗商品策略主管Warren Patterson指出,如果歐佩克8月份保持產量不變,對油價來說應該是利好,但成員國最終維持產量穩定的可能性並不高。最糟糕的情況是產油國紛紛私下增產導致限產協議徹底破裂,這可能導致一場類似去年那樣的價格戰,但所有相關方都將努力避免出現這種情況。
另一方面,市場認爲歐佩克作出部分妥協以達成一份讓阿聯酋更滿意的協議的可能性正在上升。如果各方達成一致協議,並將減產協議的期限延長至明年末,將使得油價繼續升高。
瑞銀集團大宗商品分析師Giovanni Staunovo表示,“由於石油市場已經處於赤字狀態,供應增長滯後於需求增長”,OPEC+產量受限可能會繼續推高油價。
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