瑞銀汪濤:國常會提出降準 非意味貨幣政策大幅轉向
對於國務院常務會議提出「適時運用降準等貨幣政策工具」,瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,並不認爲國常會提出降準就意味着貨幣政策將大幅轉向。
汪濤表示,雖然降準會增加銀行體系流動性、有助於降低市場利率,但認爲貨幣政策正常化仍會繼續推進。該行預計信貸增速會繼續放緩,主要由宏觀審慎監管收緊推動。更重要的是,該行認爲近期經濟增長動能走弱的重要原因是因爲部分地區疫情反覆帶來局部活動限制、以及全球供應鏈存在一些供給瓶頸(包括晶片、大宗商品等),而這些因素或已經有所緩解、或有望在未來幾個月逐步緩解。今年中國GDP增速仍可以大概率超過政府的底線目標,並不需要過多的額外政策支援。
下半年貨幣政策展望方面,汪濤認爲央行有可能在未來幾周實施降準,未來幾日國常會的表述可能有助於提振市場情緒,推動市場利率回落。她預計央行在下半年不會正式降息,但可能也不會像該行此前預期的那樣加息。她同時預計信貸增速會進一步放緩至今年年底的10.5%左右、並有望在四季度企穩。
在增長方面,隨着國內疫情基本受控、港口重新恢復正常運作、疫苗接種在未來幾個月繼續快速推進,汪濤預計,經濟增長動能將會有所恢復、隨後逐步企穩。此外,下半年地方政府債券發行可能加速、財政支出或相對穩健,也會對支持增長有所幫助。目前對今年GDP實際增速爲9%的預測面臨風險偏下行,但應能明顯高於政府年初制定的「6%以上」底線目標。
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