大華繼顯:升內險板塊評級至“增持” 保費復甦推動估值重估
大華繼顯發表研究報吿指,內地保險行業估值處於歷史低位,較5年平均水平折讓27%,認為所有負面因素都已被消化。保費復甦將成今年下半年估值重估的催化劑。外資壽險公司是受惠者,因為內地允許外資企業在內地設立獨資公司。在內地企業中,該行指出,中國平安(2318.HK)仍是壽險和財險板塊的領導者。大華繼顯將內險板塊評級上調至“增持”,而平保目標價為102港元,評級為“買入”。
大華繼顯預期,財產險保費將於今年第四季或明年首季回升,壽險方面的增長,下半年將較上半年表現佳。今年首季總保費按年增長7.8%,較去年增長加快。作為保費增長的主要推動力,首季的居民收入復蘇,可作為今年下半年保費復蘇的前瞻指標。
該行指,首季股市表現疲弱,引發市場對保險企業今年投資回報有憂慮,雖然車險改革的負面影響已被消化,但投資者對於壽險保費能否恢復仍存有疑慮。該行建議投資一些領先的行業參與者。
該行又指,友邦保險(1299.HK)是首家獲准在內地成立獨資企業的外資企業,管理層相信集團有一個可行的業務擴張計劃。最近集團亦打入了中國西部的四川市場,進入新省份是集團在中國開展業務的主要推動力之一;至於平保,華夏幸福的負面影響,已被計入540億元人民幣風險敞口中的180億元人民幣撥備。長遠而言,平保有機會將自身作為醫療科技集團進行特許經營,這將利好集團的估值。
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