花旗料聯儲局12月起縮減買債 明年底或開始加息
花旗銀行投資策略及環球財富策劃部主管黃(柏)寧表示,對未來幾個月美股的看法保持謹慎,因考慮到聯儲局逐漸減少買債、通脹、企業利潤率壓力及加稅,標普500指數2022年中期目標預測維持於4,350點。而下半年偏好換馬至價值股策略,但要小心會出現資金輪換完結的轉捩點。
中資股方面,他認爲中國股市調整似乎先於美國股市,主要原因爲內地收緊信貸政策和科技行業監管。目前政策緊縮或已接近尾聲,中國股市下半年表現有望改善,目前中資股估值已接近值得吸納水平。
另外,黃柏寧指,由於宏觀動力、經濟復甦和持續的財政刺激措施推動反彈,商品即使未能再跑贏其他資產,下半年商品市場預計繼續有好表現。油價方面,疫情逐漸受控後,中美和歐洲需求增加,受壓抑的休閒需求釋放帶動,全球石油需求可能於8月前,重返並超過2019年8月紀錄,即平均每日1.008億桶油當量。至於金價,花旗的0至3個月目標預測爲每安士1,750美元,維持偏淡看法,基本預測12個月內或回落至每安士1,600美元以下。
另外,他提到,聯儲局致力於謹慎處理政策過渡,建議對縮減資產購買和加息採取更加謹慎的態度。
該行基礎預測仍是9月將宣佈縮減買債,從12月起行動,明年12月或開始加息。
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