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花旗:下半年恆指氣氛或進一步改善 料全年港經濟增長6.2%
阿思達克 07-05 12:07
花旗銀行投資策略部主管黃柏寧表示,由於恆指新經濟股佔比加重,因此上半年當新經濟股出現調整,加上市場仍在觀望內地當局監管力度,影響了恆指表現。隨着內地經濟復甦和通關進展有機會獲得更多突破,或進一步改善下半年恆指氣氛。

黃柏寧預計,本地經濟活動或在下半年進一步復甦,但關鍵仍是何時通關。今年實質經濟增長預測6.2%,明年預測4.5%,並將全年失業率預測降至5.6%。另外,消費者通脹正在升溫,但料不會成爲問題。今年通脹預測1.8%,明年預測2.2%。

在低利率和高通脹的情況下,他看好浮動利率貸款,派息股票亦可以在增加投資組合收入方面發揮重要作用。他同時建議投資者可以尋找受惠復甦行業及關注勢不可擋主題。當全球在明年重新開放時,仍有一些疫情週期性行業會顯着復甦,包括旅遊、酒店和部分房地產行業。而大趨勢板塊包括新興市場消費、生命科學、健康護理、5G、網絡安全、金融科技、人工智能以及新能源等。

該行看好人民幣走勢,因外國機構投資者配置更多資產到人民幣資產,未來6至12個月美元兌人民幣預測爲6.3,長線預測5.6兌一美元。

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