大和:上調現代牧業(1117.HK)每股盈利預測 重申買入評級
大和發表研究報吿表示,現代牧業(1117.HK)週一公佈公司行政總裁高麗娜將於7月1日辭任,由執行董事孫玉剛接任。管理層提出繼續五年計劃,目標在2025年將畜羣規模增至50萬頭,產量倍增至360萬噸。該行預計公司今年上半年淨利潤增長至少125%,該行將其2021至2023年收入預測提高3%,並將每股盈利預測調高15%至21%,同時將目標價由3.2港元上調至3.42港元,重申買入評級。
現代牧業預計,中國原奶供應緊張,因為今年有機畜羣規模按年增長約5%,而下游需求按年增長將達到兩位數。今年首5個月原奶價格按年升13%,並可能在今年按年增長兩位數。最近入口奶牛價格上升,將令競爭對手減少奶牛進口,以加快擴張速度。該公司著眼於飼料貿易、肉牛和擴展其特種牛奶業務包括A2牛奶、有機牛奶,以提高長期收入。
大和預計現代牧業今年上半年毛利率將顯著擴大,鑑於去年同期外匯虧損減少,該行預計其上半年淨利潤將按年增長125%,收入按年增長14%,牛奶產量進一步提高具有上行潛力。
該行亦預計原料奶供應緊張將持續到今年下半年及明年,但由於現代牧業將不得不以更高的成本採購穀物,因此飼料成本將上升。

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