德意志銀行看好中國及韓國股市未來一年之回報
德意志銀行集團國際私人銀行發表最新CIO(投資總監)展望報告指,對今年中國GDP增長預期維持在8.7%不變,認爲中國經濟將受到出口穩定增長及消費持續復甦所支持。同時該行將印度今年GDP預測由11%下調至10%。整體亞洲新興市場將受惠於經濟重啓帶動的外部需求復甦,尤其是已發展市場的復甦。
該行預計,未來12個月日本以外亞洲股市回報率將高於已發展市場股市。在亞洲區內,看好中國及韓國股市;對印度市場持中性態度,並建議減持東盟和臺灣股票。過去幾個月,中國股票(尤其是中國科技股)出現調整,認爲這是長線投資者的入市時機。
固定收益方面,該行預期美國十年期國債收益率將在未來12個月上升至2%。仍看好亞洲新興市場信貸,因不斷改善的經濟基本因素、寬鬆的貨幣環境及投資者「追求收益」的情緒均構成利好。
另該行預計,由於經濟重啓帶動石油需求增加,商品價格將明顯上漲。黃金的吸引力則受到美國國債收益率上升及美元微升的預期所限制。
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