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中國中免(601888):H股招股書分析:規模優勢提升 全球競爭力持續增強
格隆匯 06-28 00:01
全球免税高度景氣,中國遊客仍是關鍵點第三方預測2022-2025 年全球免税仍保持11.76%的複合增長,而主要得益於亞洲,特別是中國市場的貢獻,屆時中國大陸免税佔全球免税市場比例將提升至30%以上。按照目前高端消費增長趨勢,預計國人奢侈品消費佔比將遠高於30%,代表仍有相當於部分消費外流,也就表明消費迴流是長期大方針。不過,對於離島免税的發展,我們仍認為高額度、多品類、大門店、便捷化的購物環境打造將帶來海南全面高端購物的發展機遇,到2025 年離島免税市場達到2500 億。在快速增長階段持續給與中國遊客價格實惠、信息透明、購物便捷的體驗是最重要的,市場蛋糕的增長速度完全能夠解決市場份額分配的問題。規模優勢快速加強,旅遊零售綜合體是大勢所趨。通過海南離島和線上業務的快速增長,中免在2020 年躍居全球旅遊零售規模第一,同時根據披露的供應商數據推測,中免與全球知名的香化精品集團的採購關係更加緊密,後續業務規模優勢將助力品類的豐富和成本的優化。投資近60 億元的海口新海港免税城項目攜15 萬平米商業零售面積將於明年亮相,投資約37億元的三亞國際免税城一起2 號地項目也將於2023 年帶來7.7萬平米的新增建築面積,這對於中免拓展海南離島免税經營面積,形成自帶流量的高端購物商圈幫助巨大。經海棠灣項目10年成果充分證明,通過自建自持物業經營的模式,也能有效控制成本,最大化收益。投資建議:公司此次計劃港股IPO,預期將進一步增強全球競爭力,穩固國內及提升海外份額,供應鏈及運營效率得到進一步提升,同時有利於保障海口國際免税城及三亞免税城擴建等項目的順利推進。疫情之下品牌商面臨疫情後經營壓力,將進一步擁抱免税渠道,同時聚焦日益崛起的中國消費市場。國內免税在線上渠道的摸索領先全球,規模實力持續增長,未來面對全球競爭應更有信心。中免在疫情之下形成的規模、運營等優勢具備不可逆性,即使國際通航後依然具備仍會持續核心競爭力。其中我們預計中國中免21-23 年盈利預測為117.6/157.7/212.2 億元,暫不考慮新增股份,現階段對應PE 分別為50/37/28 倍,維持“增持”評級。風險提示:部分地區疫情反覆對人口流動性造成衝擊;公司新項目建設進度不及預期;價格競爭加劇影響利潤率等。
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