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海優新材(688680)公司深度研究:光伏膠膜優質“賽道” 快速成長的新一線龍頭
格隆匯 06-28 00:02
報吿摘要: 核心邏輯:優質“賽道”、快速成長、盈利提升邏輯一:膠膜是較為優質的“賽道” 膠膜是光伏組件重要輔材,市場需求跟隨光伏裝機量快速增長。同時,由於光伏產業對高效率的追求,白色EVA、POE 等膠膜佔比提升,膠膜平均價值量會不斷提升。技術路線上,膠膜技術路線穩定,被替代風險較小。 邏輯二:公司市佔率未來會有較大的提升 膠膜目前龍頭為福斯特,市佔率50%左右,下游客户培養二供訴求較強。公司產品和技術實力較強,率先融資上市並大幅擴產,未來有望大幅擴大市場份額,成為膠膜行業新一線龍頭,目標市佔率25%-30%。 邏輯三:公司未來盈利能力有望上一個台階 公司目前毛利率和費用率與福斯特有一定差距,主要原因為上市前缺乏資金帶來的銷售折讓多、採購成本高、財務費用高等,隨着上市補足融資短板,同時快速擴產攤薄成本和費用,公司未來盈利能力有望上一個台階。 盈利預測與投資建議 我們預計公司2021-2021 年營業收入分別為40.74、59.38、72.05 億元,同比增長175.1%、45.7%、21.3%,歸母淨利潤分別為4.34、6.57、8.7 億元,同比增長94.5%、51.3%、32.4%。 當前股價對應2021-2023 年PE 分別為39.6、26.2、19.8 倍。參考CS 光伏產業當前48.82倍PE(TTM),行業空間廣闊、公司成長較快,維持“推薦”評級。 風險提示 光伏需求不及預期,競爭激烈導致產品價格過快下跌,原材料大幅漲價。
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