金禾實業(002597)動態點評:業績增速符合預期 未來成長可期
事件6月17日金禾實業發佈2021年半年度業績預吿,預計實現歸屬於母公司股東淨利潤4.3-4.8億元,同比增長20.53%-34.55%,Q2季度預計實現歸屬於母公司股東淨利潤2.2-2.7億元,同比增長7.42%-31.84%。6月19日公司發佈回購股份方案,擬回購5000萬-1億元股份,用於後期員工持股計劃,回購價格不超過45.00元/股。公司點評精細化工產品價格環比提升,大宗漲價毛利率恢復公司上半年業績增長符合預期,去年同期受疫情等因素影響,對基數有一定影響,目前已經恢復常態。且公司2020 年底至2021 年年初陸續投產了年產5000 噸三氯蔗糖、年產1000 噸呋喃銨鹽等項目,對業績有一定促進作用。從主營產品價格來看,據百川盈孚統計,安賽蜜價格穩步提升,目前已經提升至6.5-7.0 萬/噸,三氯蔗糖價格為20.5 萬/噸左右,環比均有小幅提升,主要原因系原材料價格漲幅較大,需要通過提價來恢復產品毛利水平。甲基、乙基麥芽酚產品價格在9.5萬/噸和8.8 萬/噸左右,環比企穩,行業新產能消化較好。大宗板塊產品價格多數出現復甦,毛利率有所恢復。新項目陸續投產,愛樂甜業務穩步推進公司主要產能增量來自於定遠一期年產4500 噸佳樂麝香及年產1000 噸呋喃銨鹽項目、年產5000 噸三氯蔗糖及年產5000 噸甲乙基麥芽酚項目。定遠一期佳樂麝香及呋喃銨鹽項目已經與2020 年年底投產;三氯蔗糖新產線於2021 年年初試運行,並在Q2 季度初轉固;甲乙基麥芽酚項目預計將於Q3 季度建設完成並開始試生產。定遠二期也有相關產業鏈精細化工等項目儲備,未來成長性有保障。To C 業務愛樂甜也在有序推進,通過直播、線下快閃等模式進行推廣,並在盒馬、金鷹等多家大型連鎖超市及天貓等線上渠道上架銷售,隨着消費者教育的推進,愛樂甜業務有望成為新的增長點。盈利預測與估值我們預計公司在2021、2022 和2023 年將實現營業收入48.79、57.23 和63.82 億元,同比增長33.07%、17.29%和11.52%,歸屬於母公司股東淨利潤為9.84、12.01 和14.15 億元,同比增長36.97%、21.99%和17.85%,每股EPS 為1.75、2.14 和2.52 元。對應PE 為19.0、15.6和13.2 倍。未來六個月內,維持 “增持”評級。風險提示食品添加劑行業計劃新增產能投放超預期;三氯蔗糖銷售不及預期;新項目投產不及預期;出現安全及環保事故;系統性風險。
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