上海機場(600009):擬收購虹橋機場等資產 解決歷史遺留問題
事件:上海機場發佈重大資產重組預案,籌劃發行股份並募集配套資金的方式收購控股股東上機集團持有的虹橋公司100%股權、物流公司100%股份及浦東第四跑道,其中虹橋公司將作為虹橋國際機場的運營主體,物流公司持有浦東機場貨運站51%股權。預案披露募集配套資金總額不超過60 億元。公司將於6 月25日復牌。本次交易重在解決同業競爭。上海機場在上市初期運營的主要資產即為虹橋機場,隨後於2004 年與上機集團簽訂協議,置出虹橋機場相關資產並置入浦東機場相關資產。此後上機集團的兩座機場同時運營,但上市公司與集團同業競爭的問題一直未能得到解決。此次若交易成功,公司將完全經營集團相關的機場運營業務,解決歷史遺留問題。主營業務有望得到優化,貨運有望成為新的盈利增長點。本次交易有利於優化上海兩場航線航班的統一資源配置,根據市場需求統籌調整航線結構,激發潛在國際航運量,帶動長三角機場羣乃至城市羣的建設發展,更好地輻射長三角等區域經濟帶。另一方面,依託浦東機場的資源優勢發展極具潛力的貨運物流業務,從而實現業務的快速擴張,打造公司新的盈利增長點。虹橋機場運營較好,利於擴大公司盈利規模。2019/2020 年虹橋機場旅客吞吐量約4564/3117 萬人次,國內排名均為第八,其中2020 年超過浦東機場。2019 年上機集團實現營業收入約178.3 億元,其中機場經營收入約139.7 億元,測算虹橋機場收入約為30.3 億元;集團機場毛利實現毛利約62.7 億元,測算虹橋機場的毛利約7.3 億元;另外浦東機場貨運站公司2019/2020 年淨利潤約5.99/5.68 億元。以上資產注入利於提升上市公司業績,雖虹橋機場盈利能力在疫情前弱於浦東機場,但國內客流的優先恢復使得虹橋機場運營表現較浦東機場更優,有望弱化疫情對公司業績的衝擊。盈利預測及投資評級。考慮到疫情的復發對國內國際客流均造成超預期的負面影響,且持續時間仍難以預計,在此情形下我們下調2021-2022 年盈利預測,同時引入2023 年盈利預測。暫不考慮此次交易的影響,預計2021-2023年公司歸母淨利5.5/26.7/30.9 億元,未來基本面持續改善確定性較高,且當前公司股價處於相對低位,仍維持“強烈推薦-A”評級。風險提示:疫情擴散超預期、本次交易能否核准及取得核准時間有不確定性
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