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恆力石化(600346):加碼聚酯新材料 提供業績增長動能
格隆匯 06-25 00:00
投資要點: 核心觀點:公司在完善上游煉化和乙烯配套之後,進一步加大布局下游聚酯產業鏈。目前公司處於建設及規劃中的PTA 產能500 萬噸/年,聚酯產能(含民用絲、工業絲、聚酯薄膜、可降解塑料)合計超過700 萬噸/年,為未來提供業績增量。 擬建設150 萬噸/年綠色多功能紡織新材料項目。公司擬投資90 億元,用於建設江蘇南通150 萬噸/年綠色多功能紡織新材料項目。項目尚需獲得相關政府部門審批,建設期2 年,公司預計達產後可實現年均利潤總額約13 億元。 擬建設年產80 萬噸/年功能性聚酯薄膜、功能性塑料項目。公司下屬公司江蘇康輝新材料擬投資111.25 億元建設年產80 萬噸功能性聚脂薄膜、功能性塑料項目。公司預計項目建設期約32 個月,預計達產後可實現年均銷售收入約145.05 億元,年均利潤總額約29.06 億元。 擬建設可降解塑料項目。公司下屬公司康輝大連新材料擬投資17.98 億元,用於建設年產45 萬噸PBS 類生物降解塑料項目。公司預計建設期1 年,預計達產後可實現年均銷售收入100.58 億元,年均利潤總額約20.16 億元。 擬投資新材料配套化工項目。公司下屬公司恆力化工擬投資23.11 億元在長興島產業園建設新材料配套化工項目。項目建設項目包含30 萬噸/年乙二酸裝置,用於配套公司PBAT 可降解塑料產能。項目建設期約3 年,公司預計達產後可實現年均銷售收入約35.18 億元,年均利潤總額約12.61 億元。 加大布局下游,有助於為後續業績增長提供動能。截至2020 年底,公司擁有2000 萬噸/年原油加工能力,形成450 萬噸PX、40 萬噸醋酸、180 萬噸乙二醇、1160 萬噸PTA、360 萬噸以上聚酯的全產業鏈佈局。公司在上游煉化和乙烯配套完善之後,將進一步加大布局下游PTA-聚酯,完善產業鏈佈局。 目前公司處於建設及規劃中的PTA 產能500 萬噸/年,聚酯產能(含民用絲、工業絲、聚酯薄膜、可降解塑料)合計超過700 萬噸。項目全部落地後,遠期公司PTA 產能將達1660 萬噸/年,聚酯產能超過1000 萬噸/年。 盈利預測與投資評級。我們預計公司2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤分別為154 億元、168 億元和182 億元,EPS 分別為2.19、2.38、2.58 元,2021 年BPS為7.85 元,給予其2021 年3.8-4.2 倍PB,對應合理價值區間29.83-32.97元(2021 年PE 為14-15 倍),維持“優於大市”評級。 風險提示:原油價格大幅波動;產品價格大幅波動的風險;在建項目進程不及預期。
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