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郭家耀: 新經濟股偏軟大市料續反覆 內地快遞競爭激烈壓抑盈利
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股週二(22日)大幅造好,大市早段好淡爭持,其後科技股走勢帶動,納指創出歷史新高,道指及標普500指數亦反覆回穩。美元走勢回落,美國十年期債息下跌至1.46釐水平,金價表現偏軟,油價反覆靠穩。港股預託證券大致向好,預料大市早段溫和高開。內地股市造好,滬綜指高開高走,收市上升0.8%,滬深兩市成交額繼續破萬億水平。

港股昨日高開低走,並以接近全日低位收市,新經濟股普遍偏軟,拖累大市向下,大市成交保持活躍。短期大市缺乏新利好因素刺激,預料指數維持反覆偏軟格局,繼續於28,000至29,000點水平徘徊。

另國家郵政局公佈的5月份快遞業務量爲92.2億件,相當於日均2.97億件,同比增長25%,增速低於4月份的31%水平,主要由於實物商品線上銷售勢頭疲軟。5月份浙江和廣東的業務量增幅分別從4月份的29%和34%下降至18%和26%。義烏的業務量增幅也從4月份的20%降至5月的14%。5月份實物商品網上零售額同比增長8%,略高於4月份的7%,但較3月份增長19%明顯下滑。實物商品銷售的線上滲透率維持在24%,5月份平均單票商品價值同比下降14%至93元人民幣。

同比來看,順豐(002352.SZ)、圓通(600233.SH)、韻達(002120.SZ)和申通(002468.SZ)的業務量增幅分別爲36%、27%、24%和9%,相比行業增幅爲25%。環比來看,韻達和圓通的市場份額分別增長了1個百分點及0.5個百分點,而順豐的市場份額則下降0.4個百分點,申通的市場份額維持不變。整體行業競爭持續激烈,收費水平難望調升,行業盈利表現短線未有明顯改善。

(筆者爲證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~

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