光大新鴻基估計中國今年經濟增長9.1% 下半年全球經濟維持樂觀
光大新鴻基財富管理策略師溫傑表示,對今年下半年全球經濟維持樂觀,預期不同國家及行業復甦進度將繼續分化。他估計今年中國經濟增長率將達9.1%,上半年地方政府加快發行專項債,預期未來將對基礎建設加大投資,基建及出口相關行業持續增長,而零售消費則繼續恢復得較預期慢。
該行建議投資者採取分散部署的策略,在部署上可留意歐洲股份、亞洲債券及商品市場。溫傑解釋,歐洲復甦步伐較美國落後一個週期,在美國「收水」的情況下資金流出,歐股估值相對吸引,表現或後發先至,並預測未來3至6個月環球經濟持續復甦。
至於匯價方面,光大新鴻基董事兼產品開發及零售研究部主管陳政生預期,風險指數、美國十年期國庫債券孳息率升跌及聯儲局對聯邦利率的看法均左右美匯指數走勢,維持美匯下半年表現中性看法,預料美元窄幅上落,於88見底,下半年美元上方料爲93。在人行表明穩定金融市場的信心下,他預期人民幣下半年的波幅將會收窄,區間約爲6.3至6.6。
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