植耀輝: 加息陰霾美股下跌 港股繼續拉鋸
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，美股上週持續消化有關息口去向之消息，而聖路易斯聯儲銀行總裁布拉德預期將於下年年底加息，則令投資市場更爲關注。最終三大指數均錄得跌幅，當中道指下跌533點或1.58%，標普500指數及納指則下跌1.31%及0.92%。全周計，道指累跌3.5%，標普500指數及納指則累跌1.9%及0.2%。展望本週，聯儲局主席鮑威爾將出席聽證會，預期會就息口去向有更大啓示；另外美國亦會公佈5月PCE數據。
港股方面，上週走勢依然缺乏方向，恆指大致上於28,500點水平上落，上週四(17日)一度跌至28,200點水平，但單日出現反彈，至上週五(18日)更回升至28,800點水平。不過全周計仍累跌40點，收報28,801點。由於市場仍缺乏利好消息，特別是A股亦處於整固格局。另外，雖然上週五恆指反彈兼有大成交配合，惟主要是受到富時中國A50指數成份股調整所致(小米(01810.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)成交便達到147.4億及74.2億元)，故如A股本週未有太大起色，預期恆指亦將維持拉鋸格局，於28,500至29,500點水平上落。
股份方面，上週體育用品股繼續破頂，安踏(02020.HK)盈喜消息對該板塊彷彿注入一枝強心針。當然，相關板塊今年累升不少，但今次盈喜至少令投資者相信估值偏高亦的同時亦有基本面配合。筆者對相關板塊看法仍正面，始終數據顯示增速仍然理想，同時國產品牌之崛起對李寧(02331.HK)等會有長期支持。只是始終累升不少，故亦只建議待回落後再作考慮矣!
(筆者爲證監會持牌人，持有騰訊)
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恆指能否重返20天線成關鍵
耀才研究部稱，上週五(18日)美股下挫，三大指數均跌1%或以上，聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德表示，基於預測通脹將會超過2%的目標，認爲聯儲局應該在明年底開始加息，市場此前預料2023年底前將會加息兩次共半釐。不過美國10年期債息一度回落至最低1.43釐創近月低位，值得留意。市場繼續關注多名聯儲局官員的公開講話，尤其鮑威爾週二出席衆議院聽證會時候的言論，另外週五(25日)公佈的5月個人開支物價指數(PCE)，通脹指標亦同樣重要。
恆指於保力加通道之底部有所反彈，成交量亦有所配合，不過10天線仍然跌穿多條移動平均線造成死亡交叉，暫時阻力位則下移至20天線28,850點，一日恆指未重越保力加通道之中軸上，指數仍然有向下突破的機會。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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