中金：維持信義光能(0968.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價19.1港元
中金髮布研究報告稱，考慮到二季度以來光伏玻璃市場價快速下行，下調信義光能(0968.HK)2021年盈利預測26%至53.5億港元，下調2022年盈利預測17%至65.8億港元。考慮光伏行業整體估值中樞上移，維持目標價19.1港元，上行空間37.6%，維持“跑贏行業”評級，當前股價對應2021/22年229/186倍PE，目標價對應2021/22年31.5/25.6倍PE。
報告稱，公司公佈1H21盈利預增公告，公司預計1H21歸母淨利潤同比增100-120%至28.13-30.94億港元，略超市場預期，主要由於1H21公司光伏玻璃業務ASP和出貨量同比均實現提升，且生產效率同比提升抵消了原材料及能源成本的上漲。
該行表示，3月開始光伏玻璃價格持續大幅下跌，但1H20價格基數較低。3月開始至今3.2mm光伏玻璃價格較年初的42元/平米下降至23元/平米，累計降幅高達45%，價格的大幅下降基本在Q2發生。不過，由於1H20光伏玻璃價格受全球疫情影響也出現了下降造成基數較低，該行測算公司3.2mm玻璃1H21均價仍較1H20高20%以上。
中金稱，新產能投放和生產效率提升部分抵消成本上漲。年初至今，由於大宗商品價格影響，公司採購的不同原材料和能源成本分別出現了10%上下的上漲，但由於公司新產能的投放和生產效率提升，部分抵消了成本上漲。
報告提到，年內產能投放計劃持續，保證格局穩固加速提升市佔率。公司全年計劃投產的4條1000噸/日的光伏玻璃產線已經有兩條於Q1投產，另外兩條計劃於6-8月陸續投產。另外，公司規劃的2022年張家港4條新產能和後續12條蕪湖新產能也已經啓動，在光伏玻璃低價的情形下，該行認爲公司有望憑藉自身超前的規劃和雄厚的資金實力，持續穩固行業地位、提升市佔率。
該行認爲，光伏玻璃價格後續繼續下跌空間不大。展望後續價格走勢，由於當前價格已經接近歷史價格的最低水平(3.2mm光伏玻璃20-21元/平米)，且當前原材料及能源成本均處於高位，二線廠商盈利情況已經不容樂觀。儘管目前終端光伏需求仍受硅料高價壓力，但邊際上看該行預計2H21需求有望好轉，玻璃價格後續繼續下跌空間不大。
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