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瑞銀預期美元兌人民幣第三季跌至6.3或以下
阿思達克 06-17 11:30
瑞銀預期,人民幣實際匯率的升值壓力,將使得美元兌人民幣在第三季跌至6.3或以下,認爲抑制人民幣走強的措施有助於防止匯率過度上升,但不會改變總體匯率走勢。

鑑於人民幣相對於美元的實際利差極具吸引力,瑞銀建議投資者於第三季繼續做多人民幣兌美元,預計未來三個月內美元兌人民幣將在6.3至6.5區間內波動,即期匯率料將下探區間低端。

瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室大宗商品主管兼亞太區外匯及經濟主管施德銘(Dominic Schnider)解釋,人行最近上調外匯存款準備金率,凍結約200億美元外匯流動性,提醒投資者不應一味押注人民幣單邊升值預期。瑞銀表示將密切關注人民幣在貿易加權基礎上的走勢。

他又指,由於美國通膨超出預期,勞動力市場遜於預期,加上美聯準會保持鴿派立場,及美國國際收支可能進一步轉差,認爲美元還有低至中個位數的下行空間,假設人民幣與歐元等主要貨幣過去4年的關聯性仍然存在,或導致美元兌人民幣在下半年初跌破6.3。

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