《大行报告》汇丰研究上调长实集团(01113.HK)目标价至57.3元 评级「买入」
汇丰研究发表的研究报告指,相信长实集团(01113.HK)成功向李嘉诚基金会收购四项基建投资的权益,有助强化公司可持续收入的弹性及派息可见性,同时公司承诺未来两年最少派息每股2.07元,相当於股息率4.1%,料有助去除投资者对派息不确定性的忧虑。去年上半年公司每股派息按年跌35%,是过去廿年来首次,相信收购执行风险较低,主要因为近期收购的业务在姊妹公司经营下均表现良好,考虑到将有长期、稳定的合约,料可为公司带来稳定的可持续收入。该行相信随着收入来源更多元化及有韧性,公司值得有更好估值,予「买入」评级,目标价由50.6元升至57.3元。
该行指出,在现时的交易下李嘉诚基金会将以每股51元获得3.33亿股,加上3.8亿股回购建议在5月份已获接纳,意味李氏家族有效权益已由36%增至45.6%,认为反映了他们对公司价值及前景的信心,在现时股价水平来看,下行风险有限,因为假如股价跌至低於51元,李氏家族有机会回购更多股份。
该行估算自2016年公布其收购策略後,公司已花逾1,300亿元收购资产,而去年经常性溢利约87亿元,大致与2016年水平接近,主要因为受到疫情影响,相信只要疫情影响开始减退,公司盈利将有显着复苏。而2019年公司经常性溢利达到152亿元,较2016年水平高57%。
该行将公司2021至2022年核心溢利预测升1%至2%,以反映收购的影响及对香港项目销售的估算,目标价升13%至57.3元,主要因为该行将资产净值(NAV)折让估算收窄至52%,而该行对公司最新的资产净值估算为每股119元,同时汇丰研究亦将公司2021年每股派息预测升至2.07元以反映交易协议的承诺。
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