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《大行報告》匯豐研究上調長實集團(01113.HK)目標價至57.3元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 06-07 10:30
匯豐研究發表的研究報告指,相信長實集團(01113.HK)成功向李嘉誠基金會收購四項基建投資的權益,有助強化公司可持續收入的彈性及派息可見性,同時公司承諾未來兩年最少派息每股2.07元,相當於股息率4.1%,料有助去除投資者對派息不確定性的憂慮。去年上半年公司每股派息按年跌35%,是過去廿年來首次,相信收購執行風險較低,主要因為近期收購的業務在姊妹公司經營下均表現良好,考慮到將有長期、穩定的合約,料可為公司帶來穩定的可持續收入。該行相信隨著收入來源更多元化及有韌性,公司值得有更好估值,予「買入」評級,目標價由50.6元升至57.3元。

該行指出,在現時的交易下李嘉誠基金會將以每股51元獲得3.33億股,加上3.8億股回購建議在5月份已獲接納,意味李氏家族有效權益已由36%增至45.6%,認為反映了他們對公司價值及前景的信心,在現時股價水平來看,下行風險有限,因為假如股價跌至低於51元,李氏家族有機會回購更多股份。

該行估算自2016年公布其收購策略後,公司已花逾1,300億元收購資產,而去年經常性溢利約87億元,大致與2016年水平接近,主要因為受到疫情影響,相信只要疫情影響開始減退,公司盈利將有顯著復甦。而2019年公司經常性溢利達到152億元,較2016年水平高57%。

該行將公司2021至2022年核心溢利預測升1%至2%,以反映收購的影響及對香港項目銷售的估算,目標價升13%至57.3元,主要因為該行將資產淨值(NAV)折讓估算收窄至52%,而該行對公司最新的資產淨值估算為每股119元,同時匯豐研究亦將公司2021年每股派息預測升至2.07元以反映交易協議的承諾。

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