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瑞银:料内银净息差前景改善 首选建行(0939.HK)
格隆汇 06-04 17:14

瑞银发表研究报告指,在4月份进行了第8轮的调查,调查了531间不同规模及行业的中国企业。结果发现,不同行业获得贷款的难度都不相同。在疫情大流行后,监管机构推动政策正常化,近期信贷紧缩尚未得到反映。该行认为,在利率上升的环境中,银行,尤其是具优质存款的,能提供好过预期的净息差表现。

瑞银表示,到今年底,社会融资规模(TSF)增长或放缓至11%,信贷紧缩或在今年余下时间持续。由于信贷收紧,市场利率或会微升。该行认为,信贷供应逐渐收紧,银行在今年首季的前期活动增加,企业在经济强劲复甦的情况下,对信贷的强劲需求将逐步推高市场利率。由于贷款收益率上升,中资银行的息差前景改善。

该行指出,在强劲融资需求和逐步收紧的信贷供应支撑下,贷款收益率或有正面惊喜,并有息差表现优于当前低迷的预期。拥有良好存款的银行将受惠于利率上升的环境,并提供更好的拨备前利润(PPOP)趋势。

该行又指,近期将农业银行(1288.HK)H股及中国银行(3988.HK)H股评级上调至买入”,而瑞银在中国大型银行的首选为建设银行(0939.HK)。中期而言,该行继续看好零售推动的股份,即招商银行(3968.HK)和平安银行,因为这些股份有结构性增长的机会。

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