郭家耀: 观望外围数据港股料反覆 人币升值压力放缓
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股周四(3日)反覆向下,就业数据理想,市场忧虑联储局提早收水,拖累大市向下,科技股跌幅最为显着,三大指数均录得跌幅收市。美元显着向好,金价表现受压,油价先升後回,美国十年期债息回升至1.62厘水平。港股预托证券大致偏软,预料大市早段跟随外围低开。内地股市反覆下跌,沪综指收市下跌0.3%,沪深两市成交略为减少。
港股走势转弱,指数失守29,000点水平,外围科技股走势受压,拖累本港新经济股表现,市场继续观望外围经济数据表现,以判断联储局未来政策去向,预料指数短期反覆整固,在28,500至29,500点水平上落。
另人民银行日前宣布上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率,自6月15日起,上调2个百分点,由现行的5%提高到7%。市场分析认为,此举可回收部分境内美元流动性,加强金融机构外汇流动性管理,缓解人民币升值压力。
早前官方已连续发声管理汇率预期,央行主管媒体《金融时报》发表评论员文章称,未来可能推动人民币贬值的四大因素不能忽视,包括美联储退出量化宽松货币政策、美国经济强劲复苏带动美元走强、全球疫情逐渐得到控制和供给能力恢复,以及美国资产泡沫可能破裂,全球避险情绪升温。
人民银行前官员亦表示,当前人民币过快升值有可能已经出现超调,未来看不可持续,也不符合国内外经济金融形势。收紧市场流动性有助推动息口向上,有利银行息差水平提升,相信今次调整外汇存款准备金率对行业属正面消息。
(笔者为证监会持牌人,没持有上述股份)~
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