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晨星(BNP研究機構):新高教集團(2001.HK)前景展望樂觀 上調公允價值估值至9.9港元
格隆匯 06-02 10:23

晨星(Morningstar,BNP研究機構)發研報指出,新高教集團(2001.HK)宣佈公司附屬大愛教育6400萬元人民幣收購嵩明新巨餘下10%股權,收購事項完成後,嵩明新巨將由大愛教育擁有100%股權。晨星認為該事項對新高教集團有積極影響,因其將全權控制廣西學校,具有更好的協同作用,提高運營效率。晨星維持其“無護城河”評級,並將公允價值估值從4.56港元上修至9.90港元,上調幅度高達117%,對應2022財年15.4倍的市盈率。

晨星預測新高教集團2020-2025財年的淨利潤複合年增長率將達48.3%,主要受以下因素推動:1)學費的增長和招生人數的提高帶動收入內生增長;2)通過提高現有學校的利用率以實現有機擴張;3)甘肅學校成功轉設並已於今年4月份並表,收入增量可期;4)收購鄭州學校後,管理層預計未來三年學校招生的複合年增長率將達14%,淨利潤複合年增長率將在40%以上;5)繼續節約財務成本,淨負債率持續改善;6)中期財報顯示截至今年2月底,集團在手現金16.3億元(人民幣,下同),此外,集團新設立了20億元投資信託計劃作為融資試點,並擁有9億元未動用銀行授信額度,加之即將到來的新學年預收學費收入,充足的資金儲備將支持新高教未來的併購以實現內生增長;7)管理層在粵港澳大灣區或成渝地區雙城經濟圈籌建新校,將於今年8月31日前完成;8)期待已久的民促法獲通過利好高教行業。在中國政府的大力支持下,多數懸而未決的問題和不確定性都已消除,晨星相信,這將對普及私立高等教育產生積極作用,因為投資者將重新關注行業參與者的基本面,特別是那些提供以職業教育為主的私立教育集團,因為政府正在努力促進和完善中國的職業教育體系,並通過優惠的政策支持鼓勵私立高等教育的普及。

晨星指出,新高教集團的畢業生平均就業率由2019年的97%提高到2020年的98%,2020年畢業生平均起薪八萬元。該行認為,高起薪及強勁的就業數據對學生申請該集團旗下的學校具吸引力,也提高了其學費上行空間。晨星還稱,新高教集團通過系統有效地控制成本、提高利用率及降低融資成本,其利潤表和資產負債表都在逐步改善。

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