《大行报告》中金:申洲(02313.HK)越南面料及成衣工厂目前正常营运 但需关注东南亚疫情不确定性
中金发表报告表示,近期越南北部疫情加重,部份制造业工厂停工,引发市场对申洲国际(02313.HK)海外供应链的忧虑。中金指公司越南工厂正常运营、柬埔寨工厂经历短暂停工後目前产能恢复85%。该行考虑到申洲海外均衡的产能分配及较高的工厂管理水平和防控措施,认为申洲相比同业具有更高稳定性和产能稀缺性。
该行指,越南4月底起疫情加重,特别是越南北部地区,申洲在越南的生产基地位於越南南部的西宁省和胡志明市,目前面料及成衣工厂均正常运行,而胡志明市5月31日开始的社交隔离措施也未涉及工厂。
中金指,虽面临东南亚疫情的不确定影响,但认为申洲相比同业具有更高稳定性和产能稀缺性。该行认为需关注东南亚疫情变化,因越南面料产能占公司整体的50%,若越南工厂停工,或将对公司生产带来不利影响。但考虑到申洲有均衡的海内外产能分配(海外面料产能占比50%,成衣产能占比近40%),工厂管理水平较高,防控措施完备。基於当前疫情情况,公司管理层维持2021年产能按年增长15%指引。
中金维持申洲「跑赢行业」评级,基於公司在不确定性环境下拥有较强的稳定性,上调目标价9%至229.21元,相当於2022年市盈率40倍。
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