瑞银汪涛料未来数月大宗商品价格回落 至9月再反弹
瑞银投资银行亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,近几个月大宗商品价格大幅上涨,主要是由於国内需求稳健、全球经济复苏和补库存活动,加上部分国家供给受阻,以及国内限产措施、叠加建设活动旺季,共同导致大宗商品价格此前大幅攀升。
她表示,人行目前似乎并不太担心大宗商品价格攀升带来的通胀压力,也没有采取明显措施来收紧流动性。她又指,美元走弱是导致人民币汇率升值的重要因素,预计未来几个月大宗商品价格将有所回落,但於下一个建设需求旺季9月至10月可能重拾反弹,今年年底到2022年再度回落,认为人行将维持当前的汇率形成机制不变,不会主动引导汇率升值来对抗大宗商品价格上涨带来的通胀压力。
她预计,人行会容忍由市场主导的人民币汇率的进一步升值,若美元进一步走软、外资流入增加,或是出口强势持续更久,人民币对美元汇率可能接近6.2;中期预计人民币对美元汇率可能保持在6.4附近,双向波动可能加剧。
瑞银预期PPI按月涨势预计将会减弱,按年增速在5月至6月前後见顶,下半年维持高位;预计CPI按年增速逐步回升,第四季度升至3%以上,全年平均增速仍在2%以内。
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