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《大行報告》野村調整中資券商股目標價 指首選中信証券(06030.HK)及中金公司(03908.HK)
阿思達克 05-28 14:30
野村發表研究報告指,考慮到政策正常化及A股市場氣氛自2月以來較弱,該行將2021及2022年A股日均成交額預測降16%及15%,現時估計2021至2023年各年日均成交額將分別按年增7%、5%及5%。儘管該行估計短期成交將減少,但居民資產配置於股市的情況長遠將為結構性增長引擎,其中預期有較強財富管理業務的券商如中金公司(03908.HK)、以及有較強基金產品銷售渠道的公司如中信証券(06030.HK)及華泰(06886.HK)將成主要受益者。

該行指出在承銷業務方面,考慮到主板上市改革全面推出有所延遲,將今明兩年IPO集資額規模降20%及25%,現時估計2021至2023年將分別按年增20%、40%及20%,相信影響將被後續募資規模提升所抵銷,故該行將2021至2022年A股整體股權集資規模預測維持大致不變,但就將2021/22年企業債融資規模預測降5%及10%,以反映融資環境收緊的影響,同時相信近期收緊IPO上市規則雖帶來短期影響,但長遠將為有質素的增長鋪路。

另外隨著內地金融市場開放、佣金比率下降,相信行內競爭將繼續加劇,令市場進一步整合,在這個大環境下,料具備較強組織及財富管理業務的行業龍頭將繼續跑贏。

該行將華泰、中國銀河(06881.HK)目標價分別降0.81%及1.3%,並將中信証券、中金目標價升2%及0.2%,行業首選中信証券及中金,認為他們有較強的機構及財富管理業務,同時亦具國際化策略,同時亦傾向選擇華泰,認為其估值相對較低,維持對中國銀河「中性」評級。詳細評級及目標價另表。

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