方正策略：商品价格回落，周期景气降温
本文来自格隆汇专栏： 方正策略胡国鹏
核心观点
1、消费板块：景气度出现分化，关注食品饮料、轻工制造
食饮、轻工制造景气度略有回升。其中，高端白酒价格维持高位，茅台一批价、泸州老窖价格环比回升，五粮液环比持平。瓦楞纸价格环比回升。其余板块景气度出现不同程度回落。氨基酸价格表现分化，义乌小商品价格指数冲高回落。猪肉价格大幅下跌，肉鸡苗、活鸡均价小幅回升。4月汽车销售增速放缓，乘用车销量增速环比下降55.1个百分点，新能源汽车销量增速环比下行140.5个百分点。家电销售同比增速大幅回落，其中，3月电视机销售同比增速由正转负。
2、成长科技板块：景气整体上行，关注半导体、电子、游戏、传媒等高景气细分领域
整体来看，费半指数止跌回升，台湾电子产业PMI创新高。截至5月25日，费半指数突破3000点上升至3134.67点。电子暨光学产业PMI已持续扩张，4月指数攀升至73.3%，为2012年7月指数创编以来的最高点。3月半导体销售额显著回升，存储器现货价小幅回落。面板价格持续上涨,手机出货量环比下降。电网投资小幅回升，光伏指数维持平稳。A股核心游戏公司2021年估值12~21X。5月第3周票房12亿元，较19年同期上涨125.1%。
3、大金融板块：景气持续分化，关注地产、券商
从地产需求端看，商品房价格上涨保持平稳，土地成交量平价升。从地产供给端看，商品房成交面积大幅回升，购地面积环比持平，购地溢价率大幅上行。近两周A股回暖，上证指数本周大幅回升，股市交投情绪出现明显回暖。
4、周期板块：景气度下行，关注建材
周期行业景气度下行。水泥价格，水泥磨机开工率小幅回落，全国各地区水泥价格涨跌互现。全国玻璃均价持续上涨。截止5月24日，化工商品指数报收1053点，环比5月10日下降2.23%。3月工程机械销售增速放缓。4月挖掘机销量同比增长2.50%，增速环比3月下降57.5个百分点；挖机开工小时数为123.5个小时，同比减少14.2%。4月建筑业PMI和新增订单PMI小幅回落。焦炭、动力煤和焦煤价格大幅下降，原油价格小幅回落，欧佩克原油产量提高。钢材价格大幅下降，螺纹库存持续下降。粗钢产量环比大幅回升，且远超去年同期水平，高炉开工率环比小幅上升，但低于去年同期水平。铜铝锌价格不同程度下降，铜库存上升。金、银期价小幅上涨。锂价格小幅上升，钴期货价格小幅下降，镍期货价格大幅下降，国际油价小幅回落。
风险提示：部分行业景气度指标未能完全刻画该行业景气度、经济变化太快导致景气度指标有所滞后、行业景气理解有所偏差、新冠疫情出现反复等。
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