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《大行报告》高盛上调周大福(01929.HK)及六福(00590.HK)目标价 偏好六福指估值吸引
阿思达克 05-28 13:37
高盛发表研究报告,指周大福(01929.HK)及六福(00590.HK)将於6月刊发截至今年3月底止全财年业绩,该行料周大福下半财年销售、经调整经营溢利及纯利分别按年升55%、109%及131%,六福下半财年则按年升13%、28%及39%。特别是,由於同店销售增长胜预期及加快扩张,料周大福将胜过原先下半财年销售按年增长40%至50%,以及内地经营利润率11%的指引,另其由於黄金产品组合占比增加带来毛利收缩,料受正面经营杠杆所抵销。至於六福方面,报告称,即使上财年内地新店扩张延後,料在毛利率压力下,其严谨成本控制将支持经营利润率按年扩张。

进入2022财年,该行指首财季至今内地消费情绪仍强劲,料需求重返及金价利好将支持上半财年增长动力,直至下半财年面对较高基数。报告称,两企香港业务因尚未复关及消费情绪低迷受压,料今财年在可比基数进一步下滑下将走出谷底。该行现估算今年第四季本港将局部复关,在去年首季旅客消费将复苏至疫情水平的34%。考虑六福及周大福在2020财年疫情前港澳业务经营溢利贡献占比分别达30%及10%,高盛认为六福是押注香港零售复苏的更佳替代品,并偏好六福多於周大福,源於估值吸引。

高盛上调周大福2021至2023财年纯利预测10%至14%,以反映在强劲同店销售增长势头及更进取的门店扩张下,内地业务展望改善,以及黄金产品占比扩张下毛利率收缩,以及港澳同店销售复苏押後,并上调估值基础,由2022财年预测市帐率3.7倍上调至4.1倍,以反映最新同业估值,目标价由10.5元升至12元,评级「中性」。

报告另上调六福2021至2023财年纯利预测1%至6%,并上调估值基础,由2022财年预测市帐率1.3倍上调至1.4倍,以反映最新同业估值,目标价由24元升至26元,维持评级「买入」。该行偏好六福,现估值仅相当2022财年预测市帐率1.2倍,而周大福则是4.9倍。

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