《大行报告》高盛料成品油消费税利好国有油企 上调中石化评级至「中性」 偏好中石油和中海油
高盛发表研究报告指,预期内地成品油新消费税落地後,将减少石油产品进口,部分纾缓下游供应过剩风险。该行上调国有石油公司明年提炼使用率预测2个百分点,并上调提炼毛利预测每桶一美元。考虑本土市场今明两年独立新增产能添置仍受关注,该行料新消费税将抵销国有石油公司经营及提炼毛利率下行风险。
与宏观团队看法一致,高盛料今年下半年逐渐绷紧的原油基本面将推升布兰特期油价格至每桶80美元。在需求面方面,报告料未来数个月大规模疫苗接种将推动复苏,已发展经济体出行改善有助抵销对南亚及拉美需求疲弱。供应面方面,报告料伊朗原油生产提早至今年10月重启,较原先料明年6月提早,但料被油组及其夥伴国增产速度放缓所抵销。
高盛表示,由於下游展望改善,中石化(00386.HK)投资评级由「沽售」上调至「中性」,上调其2021至2023年EBITDA预测分别6%、10%及11%,以反映毛利率改善,目标价由4元升至4.8元。以企业价值对EBITDA计,该行指其现估值较五年历史均值低出近一个标准差。
报告补充,在石油产业链,仍偏好上游多於下游。现时供需关系利好上游油企,但对下游炼油厂带来更困难的采购环境。该行下半年偏好中石油(00857.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)多於下游的中石化。该行上调中石油2021至2023年各年EBITDA预测分别0%、4%及5%,目标价由4.9元升至5.3元,评级「买入」,并列入「确信买入」名单。
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