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《大行报告》高盛下调新东方-S(09901.HK)目标价至112元 剔出「确信买入」名单
阿思达克 05-26 14:46
高盛发表研究报告,指随着山西省政府、北京教育部委严厉措施出台,以及据报国家主席习近平签发义务教育阶段减少学生功课负担及课後补习负担的意见後,内地课後补习股过去一个月持续下滑。该行称,合理预期行业增速将放缓至较原先预期为慢,考虑近期供应干扰(新学校审批要求收紧);长期供应限制将大幅提升课後补习机构准入门槛(以现金流角度而言),或致线下容量/线上招生增长放缓;此外,由於校内课後服务扩张及更趋丰富,持续学校收生改革,对课後补习长期需求带来影响,特别是科目补习需求。

报告称,上述措施料拖慢行业增长,料课後补习公司之间分野更大,由於小型同业难以符合更严格规管,行业龙头如好未来(TAL.US)及新东方(09901.HK)市占增长料加快。该行料新东方及好未来在2020至2025年间每年市占扩张分别0.6及1个百分点,较2015至2020年间每年扩大0.4及0.7个百分点加快。

高盛表示,以三个假设情境推算潜在政策影响,其悲观/基本/乐观情境估算课後补习渗透率,由2020年的39%,调整至2025年分别37%、42%及47%,意味行业2020至2025年间年均复合增长分别6%、9%及11%。

报告将新东方剔出「确信买入」名单,但考虑近期股价调整後风险回报相对吸引,维持予好未来及新东方「买入」评级。该行下调新东方H股目标价由156元降至112元,并降好未来目标价由80美元下调至53美元。

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