《大行报告》中信证券料美团(03690.HK)面临监管及社保等问题影响可控 维持「买入」评级
中信证券发表报告表示，预测美团(03690.HK)今年首季核心指标为外卖日均订单量按年增长112%、变现率14.4%，相关业务经调整营运毛利率为4.5%，按年上升5.2个百分点；料美团首季到店、酒旅业务收入按年增长104%、相关业务经调整毛利率为38%，按年上升16个百分点；该行预计美团今年首季新业务经调整营运亏损为85.9亿元人民币，按季亏损加大主因社区团购业务投入期亏损随单量规模提升而扩大。
该行估预计美团今年首季总体经调整营运亏损56.3亿元人民币，预计公司财报呈现核心业务延续强劲表现+社区团购亏损阶段性加大的总体表现，该行认为内地反垄断审查、社保推进等问题影响可控，维持持续看好观点及「买入」评级，及目标价414.4元。
中信证券指，根据草根调研汇总，今年首季重点跟踪的内地7家头部社区团购平台的交易规模约为430亿人民币，整体日均件单量已超过5,600万；其中预计首季美团优选平台GMV约120亿人民币，日均件数超1,850万单，交易规模和市占率方面继续领跑行业；同一梯队的拼多多(PDD.US)旗下多多买菜紧随其後，竞争层面并未拉开太大差距，区域格局继续分化。该行指是竞争虽造成短期资本重投入，但平台积累的规模优势和经营杠杆正在逐步兑现，未来几个季度平台整体履约成本的边际改善值得期待。该行预计美团优选首季业务营运毛利率为负30%，料相关亏损额约60亿元人民币。
该行指，近期美团和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)旗下饿了麽均将原本针对商户的一揽子收费模式进行了佣金和配送费分离，即将原本约20%的商户抽佣率拆分成为技术服务费+履约服务费，技术服务费的佣金比例为5.8%至6%，保底金额1.04元人民币(20元人币以下订单)。履约服务费按照不同距离、价格和时段进行阶梯式计费。平台费率更趋透明化，长看利好配送效率提升。直观来看，根据该行对单均20至150元人币不等的订单按照精细化计费方式进行比较，该行认为新佣金模式对外卖整体变现率影响并不大。
中信证券认为，推行新政策对原本商家的计费方式进行更透明化的处理，一方面明确了美团作为技术驱动的互联网公司，在平台上交易按比率向商户收取固定的技术服务费；同时履约服务费更加清晰地呈现了骑手成本，将配送的选择权交给商家，并帮助骑手多劳多得。从订单趋势上判断，新的佣金政策或鼓励外卖商户缩小配送半径，3公里内的外卖变得更加集中将有助平台整体的配送效率更加优化。
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