《大行报告》摩通降内地火电股今年盈测最多17% 下调润电(00836.HK)及华能(00902.HK)目标价
摩根大通发表研究报告,指近期煤价上升压抑火电企业毛利率,下调内地火电股今年盈测介乎10%至17%,反映本年以来煤价升逾30%的强势。内地煤炭行业组织联合发文,要求稳定煤炭价格及供应,在低基数下,今年独立发电厂(IPP)单位燃料成本料按年升逾20%。
在供应紧张、下游需求强劲下,该行料煤价将在每吨700元人民币以上维持一段时间。在行业内,摩通仅偏好华润电力(00836.HK)源於高约10%的股本回报率、股息率6%及估值仅相当於预测市帐率0.5倍并不高。该行建议未来三个月进行配对交易,长仓润电,及短仓华能(00902.HK),因後者对煤价最为敏感。
摩通予润电「增持」评级,目标价由13.5元降至13元;华能目标价由2.3降至2.2元,评级「减持」;华电(01071.HK)评级「中性」,目标价2.1元。
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