《大行报告》高盛:内地平抑商品价格短期料利淡 吁趁调整吸纳紫金(02899.HK)及宏桥(01378.HK)
高盛发表研究报告指,据内地政府网站,国务院上周指将确保商品供应及价格稳定,制止不合理涨价及防止传导予消费价格,维持稳定经济表现。
报告料根本改变商品紧张供需关系的政策措施有限,然而,该行视近期政府对商品价格的注意为整体下游板块未来盈利能力恶化的一个指标,最终对上游定价设限。
高盛认为,上游涨价很快传导至客户,但在下游需求增长疲弱的环境下,制造业仍面对供应过剩及竞争,利润率料收缩。该行料商品现货价潜在压抑核心制造业板块(包括汽车、家电及建筑机械)毛利率至近历史低位,意味扁钢及工业金属(铜及铝)短期价格潜在受限或面临调整。
纵然如此,报告称,对商品多年上行周期的看法不变,基本供求关系展望在中期仍支持商品价格强劲。对有工厂金属敞口的高质素股份,其潜在短期调整属入市机遇,如宝钢(600019.SH)、紫金矿业(02899.HK)及中国宏桥(01378.HK)。
高盛预期紫金届2025年经常性纯利达479亿元人民币,由今年料166亿元人民币大幅增加,主因产量增加及商品价格上升。考虑近期可能出现调整,未来数年强劲增长憧憬,风险回报维持吸引,重申紫金属少数公司可同时受惠於产量增加及商品价格上升。维持予H股「买入」评级及列入确信买入名单,目标价18元。
此外,报告指宏桥是纯铝材生产商,料受惠铝价上升,今年纯利料升至175亿元人民币,明年进一步升至189亿元人民币。考虑公司将三分之一产能由山东转移至水力发电的云南厂房,料公司有效降低平均单位碳排放33%,亦成为同业之间采用水力发电的先行者。考虑近期潜在调整,风险回报维持吸引,维持「买入」评级,目标价15元。
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