植耀辉: 五穷月不算「穷」 再谈恒指季检
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，截至昨日(24日)收市计，恒指五月份仅下跌312点，反映「五穷月」不算「好穷」，即将踏入6绝月又能否打破宿命呢?统计自2000年至今恒指6月表现，上升机率较高，约为六四之比；但值得留意的是，在8次跌市当中，6次杀伤力相当大，最细跌幅亦达到4.2%，其中2008年6月累跌便接近一成！但过去两年(2019年及2020年)恒指6月表现又相当强势，累升均超过6%。由於港股波动区间持续收窄，可以预期随时出现「爆」单边的市况，面对可能出现之波动市况，6月份大家也要扣好安全带了。
亦值得再花部分篇幅谈谈恒指季检。通常每次季检前，坊间均会尝试推测那只可「染蓝」。在恒指进行大规模改革之前，命中率其实相当高，皆因大家会用市值、成交活跃度以至行业前景推算。不过近年季检的结果往往也是出人意表，像今次绝大部分坊间之心水股份也大热倒灶。过往不少媒体也会在事前询问笔者意见，今次亦不例外，惟笔者却是泼冷水，第一句就表示「无谓估」。就以今次为例，虽然坊间专家「大包围」，但又有哪一位能成功估中信义光能(00968.HK)?说穿了大家其实也是「估估下」，而且由於恒指数目未来将增加至80至100只，虽然入围股数大幅增加，但何时入围亦更难估计。当然纯以气氛而言，今次投资者对季检重视程度较过往为高，可能因为大市缺乏方向而憧憬会有炒作机会，但正如上文提到之情况，所以日後大家对恒指季检，还是抱平常心应对会较好。
最後亦可谈谈股份表现，当然要先谈蓝筹新贵信义光能，笔者一向对其看法正面，惟由於光伏玻璃价格急跌以及竞争加剧，导致行业前景遭看淡。无可否认随着多间企业新增产能陆续释放，价格未来仍将受压，但需求亦必然大幅增加，意味或会出现「以量补价」情况，故笔者对相关板块看法并非太淡，亦建议投资者可继续持有，或待12元以下再作吸纳。
另外亦可留意部分绩优股表现。伟易达(00303.HK)早前公布之业绩表现理想，纯利按年上升21.1%，当中毛利率维持在30.6%，派息比率亦恢复至近100%，以此计股息率达到8.7厘。笔者过去亦多次谈论伟易达，除了持续交出不俗成绩表外，管理层的管治经验亦值得加分。建议可采取逢低增持策略，回股价回落至近75元水平可考虑入第一注货。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)
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港股至今仍缺乏明确方向
耀才研究部称，隔晚(24日)美股三大指数上升，市场对通胀忧虑降温，美国十年期国债息率回落有利科技股表现，纳指升幅较大接近1.5%。港股ADR个别发展，整体变动不大，料恒指於今早将维持窄幅上落之格局，昨日大市成交金额显着回落，於期指结算前或许仍难以出现突破。目前较关键的是A股短期後市表现，昨日内地股市先跌後回稳，上证综合指数能否於短期後市重上3,500点心理关口将是关键。
恒指至今仍处於上落待变之格局，指数自月中一度跌穿保历加通道底部，但於短期马上反弹，可惜至今仍一直受制於保历加通道中轴之阻力，亦即是未能突破20天线，势头上略为偏淡。观望整个5月份，恒指高位在5月7日高位28,884点，低位则在5月14日低位27,715点，波幅仅1,169点，此波幅一般来说较为偏小，故後市成交金额之表现将是关键，如成交金额能见改善，恒指於本月仍有望呈现突破。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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