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华侨银行:新一轮IPO潮支撑港汇 港下半年失业率料逐渐跌向5%
阿思达克 05-24 15:30
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告,指上周港交所(00388.HK)公布有关主板盈利规定以及检讨《上市规则》有关纪律处分权力及制裁条文的咨询总结,旨在提升市场质素及保障投资者的权益。同时,香港政府建议在港运营的加密货币交易所必须获得本地监管机构的许可,且只能向专业投资者提供服务。香港对维持金融市场稳定以及保障投资者的重视,或有助於巩固投资者及企业对香港作为金融中心的信心。

另一方面,继3月公布有史以来最大改革之後,恒指公司上周公布首次季度指数检讨结果(6月7日起生效)。最新变动可能吸引一些来自於被动基金的资金流入。尽管是次季度指数检讨结果出乎意料,但恒指的改革将持续进行,因此可能继续吸引更多中概股回流,同时增加新经济企业来港上市的兴趣。上周开始招股的京东物流(02618.HK),反应较预期热烈,亦可能增强企业来港上市的信心。新一轮新股集资活动,加上南向资金流入、iBond发行,以及一些季节性因素,可能继续推升港元需求,从而支撑港元汇价。不过,在港元流动性充裕的情况下,短期可能抽紧流动性的因素或不会对港元利率带来太多上升压力。例如,未来数月内1个月和3个月港元拆息分别未必能够轻易突破0.15%和0.25%的水平。

经济方面,失业率跌幅超乎预期,由首季的6.8%回落至2至4月的6.4%。展望未来,随着经济进一步复苏,失业率料将进一步下降,惟可能在一段时间内持续高於疫情爆发之前的水平,因对於一些受疫情冲击较大的行业而言,在边境限制措施仍未放宽的情况下,前景难言乐观。总括而言,该行预期今年下半年整体失业率将逐渐跌向5%。

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