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安永料中美磨擦等仍為內銀帶來不確定性 下半年不良貸款方面仍受壓
阿思達克 05-20 12:06
安永發表「中國上市銀行2021年第一季度業績分析、2020年回顧及未來展望」,指出去年儘管面對宏觀經濟挑戰,內銀淨利仍達1.76萬億元人民幣(下同),按年微升0.1%,而今年首季38家已公布數據的上市內銀淨利按年增長4.55%,增長較去年同期收窄0.49個百分點。

經營收入方面,去年上市內銀整體按年增4.93%至5.57萬億元,而今年首季38家上市內銀的經營收入則按年升3.73%至1.47萬億元。另外,去年內銀平均淨息差為2.15%水平,較2019年收窄8個基點,主要因為LPR較低以及需要向實體經濟讓利的影響。

安永指出去年內銀淨費用及佣金收入達8,086億元,按年增長6.69%,相信2020年回復增長主要受惠於財富管理子公司發展加快,以及疫情下網絡銀行業務快速增長。單計今年首季,38家內銀的淨費用及佣金收入則達2,559億元,按年增長11.04%。

在資產架構方面,去年上市銀行貸款增加以支持實體經濟,令信貸資產佔整體資產比例有所提升,而在政策指引下,料上市銀行將繼續增加無抵押貸款的比例。在資產質素層面,截至去年底上市內銀的不良貸款餘額達1.83萬億元,較2019年末增加2,411億元,不過不良貸款比率僅微升0.03個百分點至1.5%,截至3月底38家上市內銀的加權平均不良貸款比率已回落至1.43%,安永認為上市銀行有採取風控措施令資產質素維持穩定。

針對下半年的風險,安永亞太區金融服務審計主管合夥人蔡鑑昌指出隨著疫苗普及、疫情有望受控,相信未來疫情未必會常態化,惟中美磨擦及地緣政治等仍會為銀行業帶來不確定性,相信仍需關注信用及市場風險。另一方面近年數字化應用逐步展開,認為對客戶隱私、數據安全要求亦有所提升,假如銀行處理不當或會承受風險。此外他亦認為需注意監管風險,考慮到監管機構針對互聯網銀行、房地產貸款等的措施相應出台,加上對消費者權益保護的關注亦有提升,故認為銀行要作出投資及風險管理等。

在未來不良貸款表現方面,安永華南區金融服務主管合夥人張秉賢認為過去一年有支持實體經濟及企業復工復產的政策,認為需留意2021年或之後企業能否回後至疫情前水平及盈利能力,相估未來仍存在很多不確定因素,故下半年銀行業在不良貸款方面相信仍有壓力。

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