盈選報告 | 現在處於輕型滯脹階段,關注環保、教育等板塊
市場策略
▍中泰證券首席經濟學家李迅雷在近日演講分享道:
“好多人問我,週期股能夠炒到什麼時候?還是要小心,你如果現在這個時候還沒買週期股,再進去可能就是刀口添血了,就有危險了。”
“現實問題來講,這輪大宗商品價格的上漲,還沒有結束,還會持續。”
“展望未來,隨着我們人口逐漸老齡化,消費率肯定會提升,因爲隨着人口年齡越來越老齡化,大家慢慢會覺得房產投資的意義變小,而是更傾向於投資一些比較短的、回報率比較穩定的東西。”
▍恆大集團首席經濟學家兼恆大研究院院長任澤平表示,
“現在處於經濟週期的輕型滯脹階段。”
“一季度可能是經濟頂部,經濟逐步迴歸潛在增長率,通脹可能會再飛一段時間。”
“你看到M2、社融持續地下滑,遲早會看到中國經濟增速的放緩,從今年一季度到頂部以後,二三季度應該是向潛在增長率迴歸的過程。”
“我認爲這一輪大宗商品價格的高點應該臨近了,但是大家可能還需要再等待一段時間。”
▍摩根士丹利表示,對中國股票仍持謹慎態度,因盈利上修空間有限、再通脹環境令毛利承壓、股市流動性持續緊縮,而且互聯網、金融科技及教育行業持續面臨監管不確定性;再通脹環境下,下半年看好有定價能力的股票,如網易、海爾智家、華潤啤酒等。行業方面,看好受益於再通脹週期的原材料、工業和銀行股,以及受益於消費復甦的消費者休閒和耐用消費品板塊。
熱點機會
▍環保板塊:
中信證券表示,從規劃看,焚燒發電增速將放緩且在“十四五”期間料前高後低,但需求從單一焚燒向綜合固廢升級以及垃圾產業鏈前後端融合成行業新趨勢,助力具備業務升級能力的龍頭企業,未來仍能持續保持快速增長態勢,推薦光大環境、粵豐環保、海螺創業、綠色動力環保等。
▍教育板塊:
東吳證券認爲,民促法落地後,高教和職教的風險已經完全消除,未來將輕裝上陣,行業估值也有望修復,同時高教類公司本身在近3-5年也處於內生增長+外延併購的黃金髮展窗口期,成長確定性高。
▍互聯網板塊:
中信證券表示,2021年2月至今互聯網板塊經歷大幅回調後,此前的較高估值水平得到消化。各公司未來業績仍然有望保持良好增長,同時部分公司的不確定性有望陸續消化。在公司業績支撐和未來反壟斷政策等不確定性因素消化下,頭部互聯網公司有望迎來底部反轉的機會。因此,建議關注互聯網板塊在前期大幅回調後的投資機會,維持互聯網板塊“強於大市”評級。
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