《大行報告》摩通下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至53.5元 評級「增持」
摩根大通發表報告表示,中國原奶成本於今年首季按年升12%,4月份更錄得按年升18.7%,高於市場預期,故需重新調整對奶類行業之預期,並計入商品與其他成本增長影響、市場領導者的定價能力、各品牌下調推廣開支、通脹壓力增加因素後,相該行相信成本上漲將對蒙牛(02319.HK)股價構成壓力。
該行指,蒙牛乳業維持對全年指引的目標,預期銷售增長快於預期,將抵銷對毛利受壓的影響,目標價由54元稍降至53.5元,此相當於預測市盈率26倍及動態市盈率1.4倍,維持「增持」評級。
摩通表示按敏感性分析,假設原奶成本每上升5%,將會導致蒙牛毛利率下跌130個基點、令毛利下滑3.4%,料蒙牛每提升產品均價1.3%可抵銷原奶成本上升5%的影響。
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