《大行報告》大摩上調本港今年GDP增長預測至6.5% 樓價維持看升3% 首選信置、嘉里建設及新地
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,該行香港經濟師Jenny Zheng考慮本港首季經濟增長7.9%勝預期後,上調全年增長預測由5%升至6.5%,並預期屆2022年增長可維持於疫情前的3%水平,主要受全球需求復甦下強勁商品出口所帶動。該行亦料經調整失業率於今年2月7.2%已見頂,料屆今年底將回落至4.5%。
大摩稱,喜好板塊次序維持住宅/零售多於辦公室;並補充本港首季GDP反彈及失業率下滑短期最利好辦公室板塊。該行稱,歷史上GDP增長及失業率與辦公室需求有高度關聯。大摩料香港辦公室整體租金今年上半年跌5%,隨後下半年復甦5%,全年料按年持平。該行料辦公室空置率由3月的9.4%下滑至今年12月的7.5%。在這板塊偏好置地公司多於太古。
報告表示,料經濟復甦加快支持樓價,維持預期今年樓價升3%,明年升幅加快至5%,首選信置(00083.HK)、嘉里建設(00683.HK)及新地(00016.HK)。
大摩補充,失業率下滑料利好低端零售。本地消費亦受消費券計劃所提振。由於本港及內地疫苗接種計劃進展緩慢及出境限制持續,料今年入境旅遊維持疲弱。該行予領展(00823.HK)「增持」評級。詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
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