大摩:上調香港經濟增長預測,料今年住宅樓價升3%
摩根士丹利發表報吿指,將香港今年經濟增長預測,由5%上調至6.5%,預計到2022年,將以2019年前3%的趨勢持續增長,當中主要由全球需求回升及強勁商品出口所帶動,又料失業率已於今年2月見頂。
報吿又指,在地產市場中仍較偏好住宅及商舖多於寫字樓,但近期經濟回升及失業率下降或為寫字樓帶來利好因素。當中,預計香港整體寫字樓租金上半年下降5%,然後下半年復甦5%,整體在2021年保持持平。
報吿又指,相信高經濟增長會支持樓價,該行指出樓價與通脹、股市表現有正面關係,預計今年住宅樓價會升3%、明年上升5%,首選新地(0016.HK)、信置(0083.HK)及嘉裏建設(0683.HK)。
大摩又指,失業率下降將會支持大眾零售,5000港元電子消費券亦可刺激本地消費,但入境旅遊今年很可能仍將保持低迷狀態,該行偏好領展(0823.HK),予增持評級。
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